Want to make more money in Probably Stolen? You need to know how to take advantage of the various events that pop up during your daily shopkeeping grind. In this overview, we’ll cover all the market events and effective strategies for using them to maximize your profits while keeping your customers happy.
Each day, you’ll encounter several events that influence item prices and customer flow in your store. Navigating these events effectively is where many new players stumble and end up wasting resources, which isn’t great when you’re trying to create a successful shop. Early on, you should focus on collecting valuable items and paying attention to events that boost those items’ prices.
Start by preparing your shop for incoming customers and stock up on essential items. Being knowledgeable about upcoming market shifts is key to making the right buying and selling decisions.
Events in Probably Stolen come in several forms. You’ll receive notifications about some of them through the daily newspaper or a calendar.
Keep your eyes peeled for hints from visitors like the Shady Customer, who can provide valuable intel, albeit for a fee of 50 credits. Additionally, sometimes you’ll encounter quest events depending on your relationships with various factions.
Newspapers inform you about upcoming market changes based on triggered events, such as the impact of a bad Nutrifruit harvest. Staying aware of these shifts is vital for maximizing profits.
General Guideline
Most events will lead to changes in item pricing. For example, if a Water Supply Crisis occurs, expect water prices to soar, allowing you to sell at a higher profit but making it unwise to buy any.
The goal should be to stock items, waiting for events that inflate their prices. While the difficulty level does not greatly influence the usual price fluctuations, regular costs like rent do remain unaffected and lead to a different set of bonuses.
Here’s what can happen during an event:
- Prices for affected items will change.
- Additional customers may visit your shop daily during specific events.
- Faction requests could appear on your store PC during related events.
- Prices for affected items change
- Event customers visit – many events send one extra related customer to your counter every day the event is active
- Requests can appear – some events post faction requests on your store PC
The Daily Roll (Random Market Events)
Market events aren’t fixed and can vary daily; they’re randomized. However, you can get a rough idea of what to expect by checking how many active events are currently running or recalling when an event last took place.
Each morning, there’s a chance for a random market event to start:
| Market Events Already Running | Chance of a New One Today |
|---|---|
| 0 | 50% |
| 1 | 35% |
| 2 | 25% |
| 3 or more | 0% (hard cap) |
Keep these tips in mind:
- Random events don’t occur during the first 5 days unless you skip the intro.
- Rent days, mortgage days, cartel visits, and faction operations count towards the market event cap of three. Flavor news does not.
- Once an event starts, it can’t be rolled again during its duration plus cooldown days.
- If the same event is triggered again through a tip, the duration of the current event will be extended.
- New pricing changes that oppose an ongoing event will terminate it.
- There are no random market events during your first 5 days unless you skip the intro. That is a new-game option.
- Rent days, mortgage days, cartel visits and faction operations count toward the market event cap of 3. Flavor news does not.
- Cooldown – once an event starts, it can’t be rolled again for its duration + its cooldown days.
- If an event that’s already running gets triggered again (for example from a tip), the running one is extended instead.
- If a new event determines a price change the opposite way from an ongoing event, the previous one ends (i.e. Water Supply Surplus ends a running Water Supply Crisis)
Flavour News
Flavour news serves no gameplay function; they exist purely for immersion.
Shortage Indicator
The current shortage level is decided based on all active modifiers for each category.
- above +30% = shortage
- above +75% = severe shortage
The same thresholds apply in reverse for surpluses.
The same thresholds apply in the negative direction for surpluses.
Random Market Events
You can encounter up to 15 different market events. The ones labeled with 8.3% odds are the most common, while others are rarer, such as Who Turned Out The Lights?, which is the least likely to occur.
| Event (In-Game Name) | Odds | Lasts | Cooldown | Price Effects | Event Customer (Daily) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bad Nutrifruit Harvest | (8.3%) | 3 days | 3 | Food +50% | Food Buyer (buys Food, Medical). Posts Soup Kitchen request. |
| Nutrifruit Seed Shortage | (8.3%) | 2 days | 3 | Food +33%, Seeds +50% | Farmer (buys/sells Seeds). |
| Medical Supplies Shortage | (8.3%) | 2 days | 3 | Medical +50% | Pharmacist (buys Medical, Seeds). Posts 3 Medical Supply requests. |
| Water Supply Crisis | (8.3%) | 3 days | 3 | Water +50%, Water Rations +50%, Beverages +45%, Water Purification +40% | 50/50: Spacer or Corporate Representative. |
| Minor Water Shortage | (8.3%) | 2 days | 3 | Water +35%, Rations +35%, Beverages +30%, Purification +25% | Lower Level Citizen (water trade). |
| Water Supply Surplus | (8.3%) | 2 days | 3 | Water −25%, Rations −25%, Beverages −20%, Purification −15% | Ice Miner (sells Substances, Materials). |
| Household Item Surplus | (8.3%) | 1 day | 3 | Household Goods −20% | Scavenger (sells). |
| Material Surplus | (8.3%) | 1 day | 3 | Materials −25% | Miner. |
| Construction Projects | (8.3%) | 3 days | 3 | Materials +30% | Foreman (buys Materials). Posts 2 Construction requests. |
| Tourist Influx | (5.6%) | 1 day | 3 | none | Tourist, Station Tourist (weapon souvenirs) or Station Tourist (junk souvenirs). |
| Power Plant Maintenance | (5.6%) | 1 day | 3 | Energy Cells +33% | Lower Level Citizen (buys Energy Cells). |
| Lower Level Lynching | (4.4%) | 1 day | 10 | Weapons, Ammo, Armor +33% | Angry Citizen (buys Weapons, Armor). |
| Power Outage | (3.9%) | 2 days | 3 | Energy Cells +66% | Lower Level Citizen (buys Energy Cells). |
| Oxymore Addiction On The Rise | (3.3%) | 2 days | 5 | Medical +25% | 33% Clinic Volunteer, 22% Desperate Addict, otherwise none. |
| Who Turned Out The Lights? | (2.2%) | 2 days | 3 | Energy Cells +50%, Weapons +25%, Ammo +25% | Upper Level Resident (buys Energy Cells), plus 25% chance of a Panicked Shopkeeper (buys Weapons, Armor). |
Blackouts: The events Power Outage and Who Turned Out The Lights? will cause your store to go dark. You can choose to get the Makeshift Reactor perk or opt for a Power Line Hijack upgrade to counteract the power cuts.
Seed Shortage can be halted once you unlock the Nutrifruit Seed Secret in the story.
Advance Warnings (Tips)
Since events are randomized, you can gain a sneak peek into future occurrences through various tip mechanisms. These can provide hints about upcoming market events in three ways:
- Shady Customer
- Word on the Street
- Faction Tip Perks
- the Shady Customer
- “Word on the Street”
- Faction tip perks
Shady Customer (Information Dealer)
For 50 credits, the Shady Customer offers an Intel Slip, giving you a countdown to an event. It’s wise to always have this amount ready as he shows up from day 14 onwards (unless you skip the intro, where he appears right away) and usually comes between 4-7 days.
| Tip | Arrives In | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| Nutrifruit Harvest (Food −20%) | 1–4 days | 2–4 days |
| Bad Nutrifruit Harvest | 3 days | 3 days |
| Medical Supplies Shortage | 1–4 days | 2–4 days |
| Water Supply Crisis | 3 days | 3 days |
| Household Item Surplus | 1 day | 2 days |
| Material Surplus | 1–3 days | 1–2 days |
| Water Supply Surplus | 2 days | 2 days |
Nutrifruit Harvest (Food −20%, lasts 3 days) can only be received through tips; it will never randomly occur.
Word on the Street (Lower Levels Reputation 60)
Every morning, there’s a 4% chance for you to receive a free Intel Slip about a market event, arriving in 2–3 days.
Faction Tip Perks
To access faction tip perks, you need a 60-reputation score for all factions, which lets you see their operations on your calendar.
- Lower Levels: Word on the Street
- Security: Trusted
- Upper Level: Gossipmonger
- Revolution: Friend of the Revolution
- Black Market: Underground Network
- Lower Levels “Word on the Street”
- Security “Trusted”
- Upper Level “Gossipmonger”
- Revolution “Friend of the Revolution”
- Black Market “Underground Network”
Scheduled, Story and Special Events
| Event | When | Effect |
|---|---|---|
| Rent Due | Every 7 days | Rent payment day. Missing it carries the debt over. |
| Mortgage Payment | Weekly, once you take a mortgage | Mortgage instalment due. |
| Cartel Visit | Cartel storyline | A cartel member visits. |
| Lottery Draw | Every 7th day once the lottery is unlocked (Saturdays) | The newspaper lists the winning number. 3+ matching digits wins; redeem with your lottery representative. |
| Evidence Locker Break-In! | Day 7 (normal intro only) | A Thief sells stolen evidence crate. Two requests arise: Security “Missing Evidence Locker” (+10 rep) or Black Market “Stolen Evidence Locker” (+5 rep, pays more). |
| Meteor Shower | Story event | Materials +50% for 3 days, plus a daily Foreman. Posts Critical Repair (Lower Levels, +10 rep) and Pool Repair (Upper Level, +5 rep) requests for an Engineering Foundry Supply Crate. |
| Lower Level Revolutionary Captured! | After the Wanted target Arthur Lafleur is reported | Newspaper story only. |
| High-Ranking Visiting Admiral Assassinated! | Lou’s storyline | Newspaper story only. |
| Pastel’s Nutrifruit Secret Leaked! | Eleanor’s storyline | Stops the Seed Shortage event permanently. |
Requests Posted by Events
You’ll have 3 days to deliver on requests, and 4 days for the Soup Kitchen event.
Credit reward = base × multiplier × quantity.
| Request | From | Trigger | Deliver | Rep | Credits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medical Supply – Charity Clinic | Lower Levels | Medical Shortage | 3 × Medical Supplies (Common) | +8 | 60 |
| Medical Supply – General Hospital | Upper Level | Medical Shortage | 3 × Medical Supplies (Common) | +3 | 100 |
| Medical Supply – Black Market | Black Market | Medical Shortage | 3 × Medical Supplies (Common) | +3 | 360 |
| Soup Kitchen Supplies | Lower Levels | Bad Harvest | 5 × Peat | +8 | 187 |
| Missing Evidence Locker | Security | Evidence Break-In | 1 × Evidence Locker | +10 | 400 |
| Stolen Evidence Locker | Black Market | Evidence Break-In | 1 × Evidence Locker | +5 | 700 |
| Critical Repair | Lower Levels | Meteor Shower | 1 × Engineering Supply Crate | +10 | 350 |
| Pool Repair | Upper Level | Meteor Shower | 1 × Engineering Supply Crate | +5 | 500 |
| Materials for Lower Level Construction | Lower Levels | Construction Projects | 5 × Scrap Metal | +6 | 75 |
| Construction Supplies | Black Market | Construction Projects | 5 × Scrap Metal | +3 | 100 |
Faction Operations
Factions will run operations similar to normal market events. To access these, you’ll need to have the specific faction’s tip perk.
| Operation | Faction | Lasts | Price Effects | Occurrence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Increased Weapons Demand | Revolution | 3 days | Weapons, Ammo +25% | Recurring from around day 8 |
| Illegal Weapon Shipment Arrives! | Black Market | 2 days | Weapons, Ammo −35% | Recurring from around day 10; can’t be seen in advance. |
| Household Aid Distributed! | Upper Level | 2 days | Household Goods −40% | Recurring from early in the run; can’t be seen in advance. |
| Security Budget Increase | Security | 1 day | none | Once, around day 10 |
| Revolution Mobilization | Revolution | 2 days | Weapons, Ammo, Medical, Armor +40% | |
| Revolution Raid on Upper Level | Revolution | 1 day | Household −30% | |
| Revolution Raid on Security | Revolution | 1 day | Medical +75% | |
| Security Patrols Intensified | Security | 4 days | none | |
| Station-wide Crackdown | Security | 2 days | none (sends a Security Inspector daily) | |
| Black Market Raid | Security | 2 days | Narcotics +50%, Weapons, Ammo +40% | |
| Revolution Hideout Busted | Security | 1 day | none | |
| Martial Law Declared | Security | 3 days | none. Lockdown: cancels riots, raids and mobilizations. | |
| Gang War in the Lower Levels | Black Market | 3 days | Medical +50% | |
| Riots Break Out | Lower Levels | 1 day | Food +30%, Weapons, Ammo +50% | |
| Workers on Strike | Lower Levels | 3 days | Water, Rations, Food +40% | |
| Medical Aid Distributed | Upper Level | 2 days | Medical −25%, Food −10% |
After-Hours Events
Once you unlock night locations, you can start visiting places like the Dumping Ground or accessing certain shops after hours. Note that prices vary depending on the day, and some shops may be closed unless you have specific perks. Don’t forget that choosing not to sleep right away could cost you valuable customers, so use your after-hours wisely.
| Event | Location | When | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fresh Dump | Dumping Ground | Every Wednesday | Junk chance −50% (better finds), injury chance +25% |
| Georgio’s Assistance | Dumping Ground | Offering on day 15 (no Maimed perk): 50 credits for 3 nights | No injuries, +5 scavenging attempts |
| Closed | Dr. Jackson | Every Monday | Closed store. Replaced by Special Stock once you own Monday’s Special Stock. |
| Special Stock | Dr. Jackson | Every Monday (requires Monday’s Special Stock upgrade for 1250 cr) | Rare items available; prices +150% |
| Discount | Dr. Jackson | Every Sunday | Prices −10% |
| Fresh Restock | Commissary | Every Friday | Restocks to 35% of max stock |
| Burglary | Commissary | After purchasing from a Food Thief | Lowered Commissary stock: the thief’s loot was taken off the shelves |